Friday, December 18, 2009

Obamanomics II: Budget Busting

Bored, I engaged in a little mental calisthenics and pushed around a few numbers this morning before leaving for Austin , TX and came up with the following using Congressional Budget Office ("CBO") stats over a period of decades:

Federal debt per CBO stats in Billions           Increase in debt from Nixon forward

                                                                     administration-to-
                                                                     administration

Richard Nixon 1969-1974 = $343.7 (a third of GDP) 0   = Our Base Index for Calculations   

Gerald Ford 1974- 1977 =$549.1                            $205.4
Jimmy Carter 1977-1981=$798.5                            $249.4
Ronald Reagan 1981-1989=$2,190.7                    $1,392.2
George H W Bush 1989-1993=$3,248.4               $1,057.7
Bill Clinton 1993-2001=$3,319.6                                $71.2
George W Bush 2001-2007=$5,035.1                   $1,715.5

2009 Obama (est.)  $12,867.5                               $7,832.5

   (over 90% of GDP!) 

(more than the debt of all previous presidents combined even when adjusted for inflation, which includes the Louisiana Purchase, umpteen wars, space program, depression bailout, "Great Society", etc., etc., etc.)

rising to over $18 Trillion in 2014, which is after the
next presidential election year..how convenient!     $13,964.9   which is off the charts

So why aren't we hearing about this in the lapdog press?  Leaving aside the fact that the press and the American public are innumerate, let's do the math: 

Forty-two percent of households pay no income tax (AKA
"zero liability voters"), thanks to the earned income credit, among other gimmicks that violate equal protection.  If there are 300 Million people in the U.S. and an average of 3 per household, then there are 100 Million households, only 58 Million of which actually pay income taxes...so, $12,867,500,000,000 divided by 58 Million taxpaying households (i.e. roughly 12.8 Trillion divided by 58 Million) equals a debt of $221,853 per taxpaying household.

Clinton appears to have acted responsibly, but when you consider he destroyed much of our offensive and defensive capability by slashing military spending and shifted current account welfare liabilities "off balance sheet" to Social Security SSI as a future deferred funding mechanism, his slashing and burning just pushed these inevitable defense and welfare expenses off into future generations.

The scary thing is none of these numbers include social security, a Ponzi scheme which has been in the red for decades and will continue to worsen due to the graying of the workforce and continued unemployment/underemployment resulting in lower payrolls and, therefore, lower payroll tax receipts, plus Medicare, which WAS "pay as you go" program and is now squarely in the red, PLUS Dubya's Medicare Part "D", which has no funding mechanism and will grow with the graying of America...the situation is actually worse than it seems...much worse. Almost a year's worth of production has been swallowed by federal debt with over 90% of GDP in borrowed Federal money, which does not even include the states, counties, cities, quasi-governmental units like sewer and drainage districts, airport authorities, etc.

I am also worried about the continuing integrity of the CBO, which until now was non-partisan, non-political, but Pelosi, Obama, and Co. seem to be wielding influence there, so going forward, we might not be very well-informed as to what is really going on...depends who gets appointed by the Dems...use your imagination.  As you know, civil servants are like a rocket...if they don't work, you cannot fire them. It all points to rising rates and inflation just over the horizon, probably when employment ticks up...unless we end up like Japan with 23 years of no growth and stagnation...the worst case would be a combo of the two...stagflation.  Like on the Titanic, "...and the band played on..."

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